What a ride…
Surviving the Storm: 2023’s Resilience in Turbulent Times
Despite facing challenging political and economic landscapes, 2023 proved to be a rollercoaster of volatility that surprisingly ended on a positive note. Amidst the backdrop of unfavorable conditions, including concerns over inflation and a looming recession, the year unfolded with unexpected resilience. The corporate sector showed signs of recovery from the lingering impacts of Covid-19 supported by government initiatives.
Defying Predictions & Rate Adjustments
In the face of adversity, with many major banks, brokers and investment managers predicting a disaster, equity markets defied expectations. Much to the surprise of naysayers, inflation fears gradually dissipated and as of now, recessionary effects have yet to materialize. The spotlight of attention shifted towards the adjustments in central bank rates, a crucial factor influencing borrowing power.
In the midst of the turbulence, it turned out that the market had its own plans : making significant moves that contradicted the prevailing pessimism. The resilience displayed in the face of adversity and the unexpected positive conclusion to 2023 serve as a testament to the dynamic and unpredictable nature of financial markets.
Equity performance
Equity indices demonstrated robust performance throughout the year. Primarily driven by the Tech and Luxury sectors. Gold reached new highs, and bonds delivered satisfactory results. Any long-only passive invested portfolio appeared poised to generate returns, regardless of its allocation strategy.
Passive investing and the Magnificent Seven
In the face of such favorable conditions, one may wonder how individuals and institutions sought to create alpha. A closer examination of the S&P 500 Index, excluding the top 7 market capitalizations, unveils a significant portion of the index’s performance attribution. It is noteworthy that the S&P 500 – when excluding the “Magnificent Seven – boasts a forward Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 15.5x while the Magnificent Seven themselves command a P/E ratio of around 35x. Projections for earnings growth in 2024 underscore this divide, with the Magnificent Seven projecting 20.8%, the S&P 500 at 11.5%, and the S&P 500 sans-Magnificent Seven at 6.7%. Looking ahead to 2025, estimates suggest earnings growth of around 17%, 12%, and 6.7% respectively for these groups. While longer-term earnings estimates for the Magnificent Seven remain higher, the associated uncertainty band is also broader.
Navigating the AI Landscape
In the evolving landscape, a key piece of advice emerges: don’t fight the AI. We contend that Artificial Intelligence (AI) is now a well-understood challenge for investors and companies with credit to Open AI’s Chat GPT solution which introduced a widely recognized technology to retail investors. Managing a portfolio without acknowledging this trend is increasingly untenable. Despite concerns about high valuations, the transformative impact of AI is only in its nascent stages and we believe it is just the beginning. While advocating for diversification, we refrain from recommending a 100% allocation. However, even a slight overweighting of tech in an S&P benchmarked portfolio could have led to the creation of alpha.